Getting the numbers Straight

I came across some interesting information and did some digging just to be sure. It seems accurate. I thought it was telling.

People sometimes wonder what percentage of the population is homosexual. Don't read ahead yet and make a guess. Got it yet? Alright, keep reading.

As you might expect, this is not necessarily a cut and dry statistic. Various sources have found a range of figures. For example, The Family Research Institute (I cannot tell if this is a religious-based group but it is certainly taking on gay activism) summarized international studies to come up with an approximation of 2-3%. On the other end of the spectrum, there is a 10% figure that has been thrown around for decades by those more sympathetic to homosexual issues. However, some such sympathizers are admitting that this is likely an inflated number--in part due to the assumption that studies under-report the percentage because some homosexuals fear admitting their orientation. This is a reasonable speculation, though the extent of the inflation is unclear.

This reminds me a bit of a conference I went to on domestic abuse. One of the top (and I mean top) experts was there talking about how many times he had been attributed faulty statements about the prevalence of abuse, and that frankly the numbers that the public hears are inflated--with a similar justification that much abuse must go unreported. However, he was concerned that inflating the numbers could give people a sense of despair, that the problem is too large to do much about. Whatever the numbers are, it is certainly a problem, especially if it is happening in "your" home. I think it is common practice to inflate numbers for advocacy issues to try to stir up public attention and perhaps funding. I can understand that. From a scholarly perspective, such practices seem problematic--as far as trying to understand the true scope of things is concerned.

So, even the most favorable estimates show a 10% chunk of the population being homosexual, and there is reason to believe that number may be closer to 5%. Here's what I find most interesting. Apparently a 2002 Gallup poll (I cannot find the poll itself but have found several sources that reported the same information) asked Americans to estimate what they thought the percentage was. The average estimates were about 21 to 22%--that means some probably estimated significantly higher than that. In fact, a quarter of people estimated more than 25% of the population. Wow.

What does this mean? Well, it could mean that everyone knows a lot of gay people and thus the other estimates are too low. Of course there are regions of the country where one would find higher proportions of such a population. It could be that everyone knows someone that they think might be gay and thus include them into their estimates--and sometimes the assumed incorrectly. People could just be poor estimators--about 2% of the U.S. population is Jewish...I was surprised when I first learned that. Also, most people estimate themselves to be above average (in all sorts of ways).

However, I think a big factor is the media. There are gay characters on virtually every show--even (and maybe especially) reality shows. Movies--same thing. Public figures coming out in highly-publicized fashion. Therefore, I can't help but wonder if such exposure has contributed to these high estimates. I'm not saying that the proportion of gay characters is as high as these estimates, just that the characters are so constantly there that they are so often in our awareness.

What's my point? Didn't you read the title of this blog? Frankly, I'm actually fairly sympathetic (at least compared to your average Mormon) toward some of the issues relevant to homosexuality.

Ha, I just estimated myself to be above average.

I am somewhat torn on some of the issues. I don't argue with The Church, but I can certainly appreciate some of the complexities of the issues, and I don't think I'm that unusual in this regard--even among Mormons.